Don’t Believe the Census

06/02/2015 | Comment

I’ve written in the past about my skepticism regarding the 2010 census when it comes to Brooklyn in general and Williamsburg/Greenpoint in particular. For an illustration of exactly how wack the 2010 census is, look no further the data on new housing units since 2000. Between 2000 and 2009, CB1 (Williamsburg and Greenpoint) added just 11,900 new housing units. In addition to that, about 5,000 housing units were renovated – a number that includes many conversions from non-residential use, and thus a further addition of (legal) housing units. Using the city’s standard EIS methodology and assuming an average of 2.2 people per housing unit (a conservative number historically for CB1), that equates to a population increase of at least 30,000 to 35,000.

The census says we added 12,745 people during that period.

Census Numbers Show Big Jump in Brooklyn Population

Brooklyn’s population took a huge jump from the 2010 “actual” numbers in the federal census to this year’s estimate by the same agency.

Borough pols said the increase is more evidence the agency botched the official count. If the numbers are right, it would mean the borough grew almost six times faster after the Census than in an average year from 2000 to 2010.

There really isn’t doubt that the 2010 numbers for Brooklyn are just plain wrong. The numbers for Greenpoint and Williamsburg show much lower growth than would be expected just by mashing up 2000 census numbers with the thousands of new housing created from 2001 on. The numbers are so suspect that it’s almost not even worth citing them in any meaningful analysis.

Visualizing a Changing Region, Block by Block

CUNY’s Center for Urban Research has posted a very cool block-level map comparing the 2000 and 2010 census. (Based on work I’ve been doing, the 2010 census for part of North Brooklyn is flat out wrong, so take the numbers with a big grain of salt – but CUNY’s map is a thing of beauty.)

[via @OASISnycmaps]